Exclusive: Gov. Brian Kemp leads Stacey Abrams in final poll ahead of election, Senate race tied

ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) - Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp leads Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams among likely voters by a 52-46% margin in Landmark Communications final statewide poll ahead of the 2022 midterms.

Libertarian Shane Hazel is polling at 2% with 1% undecided in the poll of 1,214 likely voters that was conducted exclusively for Atlanta News First/Peachtree TV. The survey’s margin of error is 2.8%.

In the election for U.S. Senate, Republican Herschel Walker leads Senator Raphael Warnock 47-46%; Libertarian Chase Oliver polled at 4.5%.

RELATED: Raphael Warnock-Herschel Walker race could determine Senate’s balance of power

In other downticket statewide races, Republican Burt Jones leads Democrat Charlie Bailey 50-41%; Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger leads Democrat Bee Nguyen 48-40%, and Attorney General Chris Carr leads Democrat Jen Jordan 47-43%.

“It’s becoming clear that Gov. Kemp is now plowing the ground ahead for the entire Republican ticket,” said Mark Rountree, president of Landmark Communications. “Downticket Republican candidates are now essentially just drafting behind Gov. Kemp. Republican statewide candidates are leading in every race we tested, and at very similar margins.

Full coverage Georgia 2022 midterm elections

It appears that Democratic candidates have once again won the mail-in vote by a wide margin, by nearly a 2-1 margin, depending on the race,” said Rountree. “But since mail-in voters represent just four percent of all total projected voters, this group is a small portion of the electorate.

RELATED: What to expect in Kemp vs. Abrams, round two

“Voters who walked in to vote during the three-week early voting time period will split their votes about evenly between Republicans and Democrats. But voters who tell us that they will vote on Election Day say they are giving Republican candidates a significant margin of support,” said Rountree. “Election Day votes are the ones that will often be counted last on election night, which will mean a roller coaster of an evening.”

A majority of Georgians (52%) named inflation and the economy as the most important issue or problem, with just 17% naming abortion and 13% election integrity.

Landmark is one of only twelve polling firms in the United States awarded an “A” rating by the polling analysis organization FiveThirtyEight.com, out of 500 polling firms listed.

Landmark is also rated by polling aggregator Real Clear Politics as one of the five most accurate state polling firms in the United States. Go to https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-rankings/ for more.

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