2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: Quieter than usual expected

ATLANTA, Ga. (Atlanta News First) — Here’s some good news for the upcoming hurricane season: Colorado State University is forecasting below-normal activity in the Atlantic basin for 2026.

But here’s what’s happening behind the scenes. Right now, we’re in weak La Niña conditions, but that’s about to flip. Over the next few months, we’re expecting El Niño to move in — and it could be a moderate to strong one by the time hurricane season really heats up.

Why does that matter? Because El Niño actually works in our favor when it comes to hurricanes. It cranks up something called wind shear in the tropical Atlantic — basically, it creates stronger winds at different levels of the atmosphere that tear storms apart before they can develop. Think of it like trying to build something in a windstorm. It’s a lot harder.

The water temperature story is mixed

Here’s where it gets interesting. The western tropical Atlantic is running warmer than normal, which usually means more fuel for storms.

But flip over to the eastern and central Atlantic? Those waters are actually running a bit cooler than normal. So we’ve got one part of the ocean saying “let’s make storms” and another part saying “not so fast.”

The cooler waters win out in this case.

Fewer big hurricanes headed our way

The bottom line: CSU is forecasting a below-average chance of major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coast and the Caribbean.

That’s definitely the kind of forecast we like to see.

But don’t get complacent

Here’s the thing, though — and this is important — it only takes one hurricane to make it an active season for the people in its path.

“Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity,” the forecast reminds us.

So even though we’re expecting a quieter year, coastal residents shouldn’t skip the prep work.

Review your hurricane plan, know your evacuation route, and make sure you’re ready just in case.

Keep your eyes on these dates

CSU will be fine-tuning this forecast as we get closer to peak season.

Here’s when they’ll release updates:

• June 10, 2026
• July 8, 2026
• August 5, 2026

Each update will give us a clearer picture of what to expect for named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and overall storm energy.