What a potential Braves postseason rotation could look like

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ATLANTA - With a four-game lead in the National League East and 17 games remaining, the Atlanta Braves appear well positioned to return to the postseason. Their rotation depth — a development few could have anticipated in the spring or at the trade deadline — could be a key factor in a potential World Series run.

But with the postseason rapidly approaching, it is not too early to project how the Braves’ postseason rotation could take shape.

If the season ended Tuesday, Atlanta would host the Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League Wild Card Series. The winner would advance to face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series.

With Bryce Elder expected to miss three to four weeks after arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, Atlanta will lean on Chris Sale, Tyler Mahle, Grant Holmes, AJ Smith-Shawver, Martín Pérez and Reynaldo López to carry the club into October. López is scheduled to be activated from the injured list to start Wednesday’s game against Tampa Bay.

Thus, there is little debate about who would start Game 1 of a best-of-three Wild Card Series. Sale, 37, has continued to defy age and has strengthened his Cy Young Award case this season.

Sale has not pitched in the postseason since the 2021 American League Championship Series with the Boston Red Sox (back issues kept him out of Atlanta’s 2024 Wild Card Series against the San Diego Padres). Still, the left-hander remains one of baseball’s top starters, entering the stretch run at 14-9 with a 2.10 ERA over 25 starts (150 innings). He would give Atlanta its best chance to open the series with a win.

From there, manager Walt Weiss will have several options. Mahle, acquired at the trade deadline, could be the choice for Game 2. He has posted a 1.24 ERA through six starts with Atlanta and has quickly become one of the Braves’ most important additions.

If Sale wins Game 1, Atlanta could use a combination of Holmes and López in Game 2, potentially saving Mahle for a winner-take-all Game 3 or Game 1 of the NLDS. If Sale loses Game 1, Mahle could be the logical Game 2 starter and give the Braves a strong chance to even the series.

Smith-Shawver’s recent results could limit his role in those plans. After allowing four runs in 3.1 innings in Tuesday’s loss to Tampa Bay, he has an 8.64 ERA over four starts since returning to Atlanta’s rotation Aug. 19. During that span, he has allowed 16 earned runs on 21 hits and 11 walks.

The Braves could use Smith-Shawver out of the bullpen in the postseason — if he makes the roster at all. Pérez is another potential starting option, though he may be more valuable as a reliever in a best-of-three series.

In the NLDS and on, Atlanta could lean heavily on Sale and Mahle, using the rest days built into the postseason schedule to bring them back on regular or near-regular rest. That flexibility would allow the Braves to deploy Holmes and other starters strategically, whether as starter options, bulk relievers or matchup-based bullpen pieces.

Regardless of the starters, Atlanta would be supported by one of the league’s strongest bullpens. Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suárez could form a formidable late-inning pairing, though Suárez still must face live hitters and complete a rehab assignment before returning. Didier Fuentes, Dylan Lee and Brent Suter also provide the Braves with capable relief options.

The Braves have the ingredients to make a deep postseason run as they hold the National League’s No. 3 seed behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (87-57) and Milwaukee Brewers (89-56). But the best-of-three Wild Card Series leaves little margin for error, as Atlanta learned in its 2024 Wild Card Series loss to the Padres, a team that currently trails the Diamondbacks by 0.5 games for that third Wild Card spot.